By Daniela Belinschi
A strip of paradox - this is how Transnistria, a separatist zone internationally recognised as part of Moldova that is currently under the effective control of the Russian Federation, could be described. Beyond its brief, tumultuous, and contested existence as a 'state,' the region continues to draw attention due to its lingering Soviet-era aura."
The Bold Frontier: Independence or Dependence?
This small strip of land between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border has a unique but largely unidirectional history. In 1792, Transnistria was absorbed into the Russian Empire. Following the Russian-Ottoman war two decades later, the eastern part of Moldavia—between the Dniester and Prut rivers—was annexed by Russia, becoming known as Bessarabia. After over a century of Russian imperial rule, World War I catalysed Bessarabia's unification with the Kingdom of Romania. As a political entity, Transnistria had joined the scene with full rights in 1924, when it had been given a distinct status - (ASSR)
The Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) was not merely an autonomous region within the Soviet Union. During the interwar period, this region saw uprisings and strategic moves orchestrated by Soviet authorities to garner support from the population of Bessarabia.
The incorporation of Bessarabia into the Soviet Union temporarily muted regional disparities. However, with the Soviet Union's collapse and Moldova's reassertion of its Romanian identity, latent tensions erupted into open conflict. In Moldova -Transnistria War (March-July 1992), however, Transnistria's depiction as a belligerent is pertinent solely within the confines of the subject-related literature. In reality, Russia single-handedly choreographed and waged the entire war. Even the ceasefire was negotiated and signed between Moldovan President Mircea Snegur and Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Its enforcement fell into the hands of Russian army units already deployed in the area. Nevertheless, Russian troops, alongside a substantial Soviet arms depot, have yet to vacate the region.
As such, Transnistria’s ferocious aspirations for political independence from Moldova present themselves more akin to Russian efforts to preserve its power over the former Soviet Republics. Alternatively, it could also be seen as the first manifestation of the Russian modern day imperialist ambitions.
An Overlooked Strife
In the early nineties, the world was filled with enthusiasm and optimism as it appeared that the Cold War was finally coming to an end. While perestroika, a sweeping reform to modernise and revitalise the Soviet Union, played a significant role and suggested that major changes were imminent, the highest positions within the Russian Federation remained occupied by Soviet enthusiasts and KGBists, a trend that persists to this day.
Given this context, it should not have been surprising that Russia sought to maintain its influence in the former Soviet republics. However, the conflict in Transnistria was largely overlooked, if not outright ignored. One possible reason for this was its perceived lack of strategic importance. Since the initial spark of the conflict was related to language issues, it may have been seen as an ethnic/civil conflict. Additionally, it might have seemed unreasonable to jeopardise already fragile relations with Russia at a time when peace and stability were paramount for Europe.
New Movements Ignite: Cause for Concern?
In February this year, separatist officials convened an extraordinary congress of deputies and adopted a resolution requesting Russia to protect Transnistria and its over 220,000 Russian citizens "amid increased pressure from the Republic of Moldova." Transnistrian authorities argue that "Moldovan authorities are once again using the economy as a method of political pressure”. During his annual Address to the Parliament, Putin made no mention of these statements, yet Sergei Lavrov - Russian minister of Foreign Affairs, speaking at the diplomatic forum in Antalya, asserted that "the Chisinau [Moldavian] regime is following the footsteps of the Kiev regime."
The situation presents itself with two facets. On one hand, Tiraspol’s recent actions could be interpreted as a desperate attempt to maintain their economic ties with Chisinau. These ties primarily revolve around energy and gas transactions, which have traditionally sustained Transnistria's economy. However, with Moldova's significant strides towards energy independence, there's a looming risk that complete autonomy in this regard could prove detrimental to Transnistria's economic stability.
Simultaneously, these developments can be seen as part of the Kremlin's broader strategy to maintain its regional dominance. Recent changes in Moldova’s legislation, including criminalising separatism and a new customs rule stating that Transnistrian companies must pay import and export duties to both Chişinău and Tiraspol, prove Moldova's determination to fully extricate itself from Russian influence. As such, Russia cedes its positions in the region, which makes Lavrov’s aggressive discourses even more frequent.
Divided Horizonts
The situation comes with several challenges, and a resolution to the conflict appears distant on the horizon. At least for now, the separatist authorities are opposing the idea of Transnistria being reincorporated in Moldova. While this would come with a lot of benefits for the territory, the Soviet open air museum is totally controlled by the Kremlin, which hinders reaching a compromise beneficial for regional security. As long as Moscow continues to exert its influence over Tiraspol, the prospect of a peaceful and integrated Moldova remains a distant hope. Moreover, as the world watches the unfolding events in Ukraine, one must wonder: will Transnistria remain a frozen conflict, or is it the next flashpoint in Russia’s imperial ambitions?
Sources: Britanica, BBC, DW, The Guardian, OSCE
Written by Daniela Belinschi, November 2024.
Edited by Imke Mentink
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