By Ana Malamud
Donald Trump launched a historic trade war with China in 2018, claiming that ”we can't continue to allow China to rape our country, it's the greatest theft in the history of the world”. Now that he is returning to the White House, he promises to double down on tariffs against Chinese goods. His forceful stance raises questions about what his renewed presidency might mean for US-China trade relations. However, with Democrats also favoring a tough approach to China, is Trump’s strategy as disruptive as he claims?
For Chinese Scholars, Democrats and Republicans Are Two Sides of the Same Coin
From Beijing’s perspective, the U.S. presidential election often feels like choosing between “two bowls of poison”. “China can only and will only wish for the lesser of two evils elected,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
This resigned view from Chinese experts might come as a surprise: under Trump, tariffs on Chinese imports reached a staggering 77 billion dollars, and dozens of Chinese companies were blacklisted by the U.S. Commerce Department, blocking access to key technologies. Major corporations like Huawei, TikTok, and WeChat became high-profile targets amid accusations of ties to the Chinese government. As Trump campaigned for a comeback, he continued with his fierce China-centric rhetoric, pledging for a tariff of at least 60 percent on Chinese goods.
Although Donald Trump launched the initial trade war and drove US-China relations to historic lows, Chinese analysts believe a shift in power may not mean a shift in policy. “No matter who ends up in the White House, U.S. policy toward China will continue to be tough and even hostile,” said Jia Qingguo, a professor at Peking University. The conclusion is similar across Beijing’s political elite.
Bipartisan Agreement: China is a Threat
Republicans and Democrats may agree on little, but they share a similar lens on China. As Rush Doshi said, they both “broadly agree on the need to outcompete China”.
The confrontational U.S. approach to Beijing launched during Trump’s first term was not reversed under Biden. Far from that, the Democrat leadership built upon Trump’s trade policy against China, maintaining existing tariffs and expanding them to new sectors like electric vehicles or solar cells. Restrictions on Chinese access to U.S. tech have also grown under Democratic leadership. Beijing was effectively blocked from advancements in AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing.
A key example of this bipartisan unity is the CHIPS Act, a sweeping piece of legislation aimed at boosting U.S. semiconductor production and, in some way, countering China. Although not explicitly targeted, China is mentioned several times. For instance, the Act bans companies that receive CHIPS funding from making any major investments that would significantly expand semiconductor manufacturing in China or other foreign countries of concern for 10 years after receiving the grants. The bill passed with support from both parties.
In practice, Trump’s “America First” and Democrat’s “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” align closely, promoting domestic industry and protecting national interests. Unsurprisingly, Chinese officials and scholars remain wary. Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, noted that “the Democrats are also generally in favor of tariff increases.” Similarly, Yan Xuetong warned that US-China trade relations are likely to deteriorate further, no matter who occupies the White House.
Unpredictability: Trump’s Signature Chaos in US-China Relations
Do Democrats and Republicans truly have the same stance on China? Not quite. Trump and Harris not only represent different parties; they embody starkly different personalities.
When asked by the Wall Street Journal why China would not invade Taiwan under his watch, Trump claimed it was because “[Xi Jinping] knows that I am f—ing crazy.” Known for his brash, unpredictable style, Trump has been described as emotional, erratic, and willing to flout norms — qualities that raise questions about how his approach to China might unfold. Just after Trump’s re-election, Mikko Huotari, from MERICS cautioned that “we need to be prepared for some surprises,” referring to Trump as potentially introducing elements of disruption and uncertainty in the region. In fact, that might be Trump’s personal touch in foreign affairs. Back in 2016, in a foreign policy address, he stated that "We must, as a nation, be more unpredictable. We are totally predictable. We tell everything. We're sending troops: We tell them. We're sending something else: We have a news conference. We have to be unpredictable."
Conversely, despite the hawkish stance, the Biden Administration did keep a moderate tone. The former president emphasized “competition, not conflict”; on de-risking and not decoupling from China. Pundits agree on the fact that another Democrat mandate would have given more continuity and predictability to the US-China relations.
Wang Jisi anticipates that the Trump re-election will lead to extreme, unilateral trade measures. For Trump, tariffs and economic instruments go beyond mere bargaining; they reflect a deeply held belief that this hardline position serves American interests, as Wu Xinbo notes, calling it an “ideology Trump believes is good for the U.S.” However, knowing just how far Trump might take these policies remains an open question.
Citizens: The Ultimate Losers of Trade Wars
There is a broad consensus: China is a competitive threat. Nonetheless, both business leaders, operating between the world’s two most powerful economies, as well as economic experts, caution that trade wars come with significant economic risks.
The reality is that a large portion of U.S. imports from China consists of intermediate goods—components that are essential in the production of finished products. When tariffs raise the cost of these goods, the price increases ripple through U.S. industries and, ultimately, are passed onto consumers. For companies reliant on these imports, the added expense could force them out of business unless they can find affordable alternatives. However, economic distortions may go well beyond that. A recent Peterson Institute study found that the average American household would endure an additional 2,600 dollars in annual costs due to tariffs.
What to Expect from a Trump re-election
The U.S. pivot toward protectionism and isolationism will likely have far-reaching consequences—not only for American citizens but for the global economy. The US-China relationship stands as the world’s most consequential bilateral dynamic, and the economic weaponization of these two powers is not self-contained: it has wider effects across the globe.
As Baron de Montesquieu famously wrote in 1748, "Peace is the natural effect of trade." In a similar vein, World Trade Organization Director-General Pascal Lamy once remarked, "If goods do not cross frontiers, soldiers will." Yet, these views seem increasingly outdated in today’s geopolitical climate. A realignment is underway, and Europe’s role could prove pivotal as a stabilizing force in a world of rising tensions.
Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping has extended a diplomatic olive branch, congratulating the president-elect and advocating for "win-win cooperation" rather than confrontation. Be that as it may, actions through trade measures will determine the path ahead. So far, the strident rhetoric and defensive economic policies suggest a more antagonistic dynamic.
Sources: BBC, Financial Times, Tax Foundation, Lianhe Zaobao, Merics, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Euronews, Foreign Affairs, Petersons Institute for International Economics, Brookings, World Trade Organization, Chinese Embassy, Los Angeles Times, CSIS.
Written by Ana Malamud, November 2024
Edited by Nina Gush & Sarah Valkenburg
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